CLARITY Act odds fall to 16% as key Democrats counter GOP’s ‘final’ offer
Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act’s passage this year swung sharply, rising to 35% after Republicans floated a revised bill with stronger ethics provisions, then falling back to about 16% as Senate Democrats signaled the changes were insufficient. Sen. Mark Warner said the ethics language was not close to enough, and other Democrats, including Raphael Warnock and Ruben Gallego, pushed for stronger anti-corruption measures and prepared a counterproposal. Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill, and failure on Tuesday could stall a major crypto market structure measure dividing SEC and CFTC oversight. The bill also faces pushback from state attorneys general, tribal gaming groups, and banking trade groups, which warn about conflicts with gaming law and stablecoin-related loopholes. Crypto industry groups are urging passage, arguing the bill would create clear rules and keep innovation in the U.S.
