Even if Bitcoin rises 30% a year this renewable mining model still loses money as hashrate keeps pace
A new Energy Economics model of a 20 MW Bitcoin mine paired with a hypothetical 100 MW Irish wind farm finds the project is highly dependent on both Bitcoin price and network hashrate growth. At about €60,000 per BTC, none of the tested curtailment levels yields payback within six years; at €80,000, payback only works in higher-curtailment cases; at €100,000, payback drops to roughly 2.1–3.6 years. If Bitcoin and hashrate grow at the same rate, the project stays unprofitable with a negative €10.1 million NPV, because rising hashrate dilutes mining rewards. Profit appears only when Bitcoin growth materially outpaces hashrate growth. The model shows the mine can absorb most curtailed wind power and lift revenue, but gains flatten beyond about 20–30 MW. Efficient Antminer S21 Hydro hardware is viable; older S9 units are not.
