Following US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, on-chain activity from Iranian crypto exchanges surged, recording approximately $10.3 million in outflows between February 28 and March 2, according to Chainalysis. Hourly outflows from major Iranian platforms rapidly escalated, surpassing typical volumes for that period. Such crypto spikes correlate with previous shocks, including bombings and military exchanges, illustrating how political and economic instability—marked by a collapsing rial, high inflation, and sanctions—drive Iranians toward crypto channels. Chainalysis outlines three explanations for this post-strike spike: ordinary Iranians moving funds into self-custody, exchanges cycling liquidity to new wallets for obfuscation under sanction pressure, or state-linked actors—including the IRGC—maneuvering funds tied to sanctions evasion or cross-border trade. Complicating interpretation are factors such as internet blackouts, reshuffling due to cyber and seizure risks, and the possibility that withdrawals end at other controlled wallets. Iran’s central bank accumulated $507 million in USDT over the past year, while UK exchanges facilitated substantial IRGC transactions. Furthermore, Iran’s Ministry of Defence Export Center started accepting crypto payments for weapons sales in early 2026.