Markets Don’t Buy the US Ceasefire Against Iran Will Last
A recent U.S. announcement of a ceasefire with Iran has not convinced prediction markets it will last. A Polymarket contract requiring 14 straight days without a U.S. airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike on Iran fell from above 60% to about 53%, suggesting traders see near-even odds the pause holds for two weeks. That skepticism reflects the difference between a ceasefire and a lasting halt: Trump has said he could resume “very strong military action” if talks fail, while Iran says no direct negotiations are underway, only mediator messages. A separate Myriad market expects formal senior-level U.S.-Iran peace talks to be delayed until next month. The mood echoes an April ceasefire that briefly boosted Bitcoin and oil, yet was still viewed as fragile.
