Midterms Blue Wave Makes $917K for One Polymarket Trader, If Alaska Doesn’t Flip
Summary
Polymarket trader 0xA2 showed about $917,000 in gains during the U.S. midterms, largely from a still-open $609,644 bet that Republicans would fail to win any Senate swing states. The position’s value rose to $1.48 million, but Alaska’s result could erase much of the unrealized profit; traders assigned an upset a 14% chance. The trader also realized $106,115 betting on a Democratic Texas Senate win. Polymarket and Kalshi saw heavy election activity, with midterm markets recording more than $546 million in notional volume over two weeks. Analysts said trading surged on election night, while experts cautioned that prediction-market odds can be wrong and should not be treated as certainties.
