Morning Minute: Bitcoin Headed for Rare Back-to-Back Quarterly Loss

Summary

Bitcoin is trading just under $60,000 and is on pace for rare back-to-back quarterly losses, down about 12% this quarter after a 22% drop in Q1. The selloff hit a June 26 low of $58,115, a 20-month low, and the rebound has been weak. Altcoins are weaker: ETH is down about 25% this quarter and 47% this year, while Dogecoin, XRP, and HYPE posted double-digit weekly losses; Solana is down 43% on the year. The decline is reviving debate over whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is breaking, especially if 2026 turns negative. Bulls point to a pattern where two consecutive red six-month candles preceded major multi-year uptrends in 2018 and 2022. Sentiment is also very bearish, with the Fear and Greed index at 18, suggesting either further downside or a capitulation bottom.