Morning Minute: Fidelity Calls Bitcoin 'Maturing,' Lays Out 2026 Bull and Bear Case

Summary

Fidelity Digital Assets released its 2026 Look Ahead report, analyzing Bitcoin’s technical and macro landscape. The report challenges claims that innovations like Ordinals or inscriptions are “breaking” Bitcoin, highlighting that block space demand stayed low even during spam waves in 2025. If demand rises, Fidelity contends that higher fees will support miner incentives without harming usability. The report warns governance attempts to censor non-financial transactions could undermine Bitcoin’s decentralization and censorship resistance. It also notes developers are preparing for quantum risks, proposing mitigation strategies such as BIP-360. On the macro front, Fidelity sees Bitcoin in a bullish setup as global liquidity trends reverse, with central banks loosening monetary policy amid ballooning debt. Bitcoin is described as a “liquidity sponge,” poised to benefit from money moving out of money market funds and rising institutional adoption—the latter evidenced by over $123B in spot Bitcoin ETF assets as of late 2025. However, risks remain from inflation, a strong dollar, fiscal stress, and possible risk-off sentiment after recent market shocks. Overall, the report views Bitcoin as maturing into a core macro asset, shaped by liquidity cycles and institutional flows, but expects ongoing volatility.