OpenAI’s GPT-6 Will Arrive by September, Markets Predict
Prediction markets are increasingly betting that OpenAI will release GPT-6 in September rather than August. On Polymarket, the probability of a public release by Sept. 30 rose to about 77%, up sharply from 14% at the start of the month; August deadlines are lower, with Aug. 31 around the mid-30s and Aug. 21 near 15%. Myriad shows a similar 77% September probability. OpenAI has not announced GPT-6, its design, or a launch date. Its current flagship is GPT-5.6 Sol, released July 9. Expectations are that GPT-6 would be more autonomous, better at coordinating tools and long tasks, and stronger at persistent memory, but no specifications, pricing, or feature list are public. The betting surge comes during a busy OpenAI period that includes a cybersecurity evaluation issue, new hiring in Dublin, and major financing activity.
