Senators Push CFTC to Ban Wildfire Bets on Prediction Markets
Nine Democratic senators are pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to ban prediction-market contracts tied to wildfires, arguing they create dangerous incentives to profit from disasters. In a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, senators including Jeff Merkley, Alex Padilla, and Adam Schiff warned that wildfire bets could encourage arson, insider trading, and other attempts to influence active fires, while minimizing community suffering. They cited reports that Polymarket took more than $1.2 million in bets on California’s 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires and said similar contracts are already appearing on newer platforms. The senators urged the CFTC to act before next wildfire season and to apply guardrails to both U.S. and offshore markets. The request comes amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets and continuing legal fights over whether federal or state authorities should regulate them.
