Polymarket Users Spur Insider Trading Suspicions With $2.4 Million in Iran Prediction Wins
Crypto analysts from Bubblemaps have uncovered nine interlinked Polymarket accounts that earned $2.4 million by successfully betting on U.S. military actions in Iran, including predicting strikes, leadership changes, and ceasefires. The accounts were created days before the U.S. began bombing Iran in late February and achieved a 98% success rate, only losing small amounts assumed to be intentional misdirection. Although one account had an American-themed name, there is no hard evidence the operators are U.S.-based, despite their focus on U.S. military events. The winnings were ultimately moved to various crypto exchanges, including Bybit, Binance, and HTX. This revelation follows the arrest of a U.S. soldier accused of making insider bets on America’s attack on Venezuela, intensifying scrutiny of prediction markets and fueling debate about whether insider trading is an inherent, accuracy-boosting element or an ethical problem in these crypto markets.
