The Bitcoin Cycle You Knew Is Dead, Says Capriole Founder
Bitcoin's four-year boom-and-bust cycle is considered effectively over due to changes in its monetary design, according to Charles Edwards. Since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin's annual supply growth has dropped to approximately 0.8%, making it a harder asset than gold. Historical 80-90% drawdowns driven by miners are now seen as outdated. Current market dynamics are influenced by investor behavior, macro liquidity, and on-chain valuation extremes, rather than the halving calendar. Positive liquidity conditions are present, with the Fed expected to cut rates three times in 2025. Institutional demand is strong, with over 150 companies buying more than 500% of Bitcoin's daily supply. However, quantum computing poses a long-term risk to Bitcoin's security, necessitating proactive measures for a transition to quantum-resistant systems. Edwards emphasizes the importance of monitoring net liquidity and institutional buying while remaining vigilant about potential risks from treasury companies. Bitcoin is currently trading at $119,121.
