The Midterms Are the First Real Test of Whether Markets Beat Pollsters
Summary
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are entering the U.S. midterms with larger platforms and more time to develop election trading than in 2024. Their combined monthly volume reached $53 billion in July, though most activity is sports; political trading remains comparatively small. The CFTC has proposed a framework that would not classify election contracts as gaming. Critics say thin congressional markets can be moved by relatively small bets, while Kalshi argues mispricing creates incentives for correction. A New York summit will bring journalists, researchers, exchanges and financial institutions together to assess whether polls, models or market odds best forecast election outcomes.
