U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket's
Two U.S.-regulated prediction markets, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, launched presidential race betting ahead of Election Day. Kalshi traded $344,101 in contracts, while ForecastEx saw $346,000. In contrast, Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, recorded over $1.2 billion in stakes despite prohibiting U.S. users. Experts suggest Kalshi and ForecastEx may struggle to catch up but could attract traders from Polymarket. Current trading odds show Kamala Harris at a 51% chance of winning on Kalshi and 53% on ForecastEx, while Trump stands at 50% and 47%, respectively. Kalshi recently won a legal battle against the CFTC to offer election contracts. The CFTC is appealing this decision and considering a proposal to ban political event contracts.
