US midterms: Prediction markets favor Democrats in key crypto races
Summary
Prediction markets saw record midterm-election activity, with nearly $1.9 billion traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. Both platforms favored Democrats taking control of Congress. The outcome could affect crypto legislation and regulatory policy: a Sherrod Brown win in Ohio may complicate the industry’s agenda, while a Troy Jackson victory in Maine could add a crypto-supportive senator. Markets also forecast several close races differently from polling. Conditional Polymarket contracts implied a 35% chance of recession by the end of 2027 if Democrats sweep Congress, versus 19% otherwise.
