What Is 'Red September'? Bitcoin's Curse, and Why Wall Street Has the Same One
September is historically weak for both Bitcoin and stocks. Since 2013, Bitcoin has fallen in 8 of 13 Septembers, with an average return of -2.97% and a negative median, while the S&P 500 has also shown a long-run September decline going back decades. Common explanations for the “Red September” pattern include fiscal-year tax-loss selling, post-summer repositioning, and Fed meeting timing, though none fully explain Bitcoin. This September starts with Bitcoin near $77,500 after a strong August, but macro conditions look tighter: inflation remains sticky, rate-hike odds have risen, Treasury yields are elevated, and a mid-September Fed decision looms. At the same time, gold’s strength and a proposed SEC crypto rule add mixed signals. Last year bucked the pattern with a green September, but was followed by a sharp October reversal.
