Why a weekend break below $62,500 could unleash a Bitcoin selling wave toward $58,500
Bitcoin is trading around $62,900 after testing the $62,500-$62,560 floor of a five-week range between about $62,000 and $66,000. It has repeatedly failed to hold above $64,000-$65,000, including six rejections near $65,000 in early August. Macro data improved sharply: weaker payrolls, softer CPI and PPI, and a 0.6% retail sales drop cut expectations for a September rate hike to 31% from 59% a week earlier. Stocks rallied, but Bitcoin lagged and could not break higher. On-chain and flow data are less supportive. About 1.79 million BTC sits in the current range at cost basis, making it a large break-even zone. Long-term holder supply fell, suggesting some recent buyers are selling at a loss. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $289 million in outflows this week. Weekend risk is elevated because ETFs are closed while Bitcoin trades nonstop. A sustained break below $62,500 could open $60,000 and then $58,000-$59,000; a reclaim of $65,000 could target $66,000-$68,700.
