Americans Traded Up to $34 Billion on Offshore Prediction Markets: Study
A study commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets estimates that Americans generated about $11 billion to $34 billion in offshore prediction market trading volume in the 12 months ending April 2026, representing roughly 12.5% to 31.5% of total U.S. prediction market activity. The analysis, by Rutgers professor Harry Crane, compared offshore platforms that exclude U.S. users with regulated or domestic-only markets. Polymarket was the largest offshore venue studied, with an estimated $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion of its $55.6 billion trailing volume tied to U.S. users, despite bans on U.S. access. The coalition argues that Americans are using VPNs to reach unregulated markets that lack customer verification, AML controls, and market integrity oversight. The findings come amid rising scrutiny of prediction markets and ongoing disputes over CFTC authority and new proposed restrictions on contracts tied to war or assassination.
