As SpaceX IPO approaches, Polymarket, Ventuals assign $2 trillion valuation: Crypto Daily
SpaceX’s Friday Nasdaq IPO is being priced with a current valuation around $1.77 trillion, but pre-IPO prediction markets suggest a higher level, mostly in the $1.8 trillion to $2.1 trillion range. Polymarket implies a 64% chance of a first-day close above $2 trillion and only a 5% chance above $3 trillion, signaling expectations for a strong but not extreme debut. The IPO is also being watched by bitcoin traders as a test of the idea that large equity listings have pulled risk capital away from crypto. If so, capital could rotate back into bitcoin and other crypto assets after the offering. More broadly, bitcoin’s recent relationship with Nasdaq-100 futures has weakened after breaking down in May, when stocks rose while BTC fell. Nasdaq weakness this month raises the risk of renewed pressure on bitcoin, with some traders warning BTC could slip below $60,000 if the correlation during equity selloffs holds.
