Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEO

Summary

Bitcoin may have ended its bear market after CryptoQuant’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive for the first time since early October. The signal comes from onchain profitability measures: MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR, compared with their 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant’s CEO said this suggests the 2026 bear cycle is over. The indicator was at extreme bear levels on Feb. 5, when BTC fell to $60,000, but reached 0.042 by Aug. 26, placing it in bullish territory. The model has historically aligned with major BTC trend reversals, including the end of the previous bear market in early 2023. Still, the recovery is not confirmed by everyone: concerns remain about weak demand, nearby liquidity resistance, and whether August’s monthly close can break a long-term downtrend.