Bitcoin beats the S&P 500 on most trading days but still loses the month
Summary
Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 in 10 of 18 sessions through Oct. 26, recovering above a 50% session win rate, though it fell 4.25% over the period while the index gained 0.33%. US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have been highly concentrated in BlackRock’s IBIT, which accounted for about 96% of net flows since August; October’s share rose largely because rival funds saw heavy redemptions. Meanwhile, indicators point to weak underlying US spot demand, including declining stablecoin supply, a negative Coinbase premium and negative spot volume delta. The outlook depends on whether IBIT inflows persist, rival ETF flows recover and macro conditions ease; continued outflows and tighter-rate expectations could push Bitcoin lower.
