Bitcoin (BTC) is down 'just' 32% a year after the record high of $126,000
Summary
Bitcoin’s current bear market has been milder and shorter than previous cycles: its decline from a record above $126,000 bottomed at just over 53%, versus historical drawdowns of 77%–85%, and reached its low after about nine months. Analysts attribute the change to institutional and ETF-driven demand replacing retail leverage, alongside lower volatility and fewer cascading liquidations. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility is around 40%, down from historical levels above 80%. Experts say institutional flows may support prices during weakness, though sharp rallies remain possible. Risks include rising U.S. Treasury yields, which could pressure bitcoin, and cheap downside protection despite low implied volatility.
