Bitcoin cycle bottom may already be in at $58K, says analyst James Check
Bitcoin may already have formed its cycle bottom after two capitulation events, according to Checkonchain founder James Check. He said the February drop toward $60,000 was a “price-pain capitulation,” when late buyers sold at losses, and the June-July move near $58,000 was a “time-pain capitulation,” after months of stagnation exhausted holders. He argued this makes an October 2026-style bottom less likely, even though some traders still expect a four-year-cycle low. Check said about $300 billion in Bitcoin cost basis sat between $58,000 and $70,000, and roughly 4 million BTC shifted from unrealized loss to profit during the rebound. Long-term holders now control about 80% of Bitcoin wealth, reducing near-term sell pressure. He rejected strict reliance on the four-year cycle, saying traders should focus on cost basis, profitability, and holder behavior rather than calendar dates. Grayscale researcher Zach Pandl also said the bottom may have been around $58,000. Onchain signals remain mixed but include signs of stabilization.
