Bitcoin futures carry trades are quietly beating Treasuries at 7.89% driving $850M Wall Street Bitcoin ETF spree
Matched-date CME and Treasury data from Aug. 7 show Bitcoin futures carry above the U.S. government debt benchmark, weakening a widely repeated comparison. Using CME settlement and the same-day Bitcoin reference price, the August futures contract implied a 7.89% annualized basis, September 6.25%, and December 5.69%, all above the 4.19% two-year Treasury yield. That breaks a claimed 157-day streak only under specific date-and-method choices; different venues, roll rules, or cost treatments can change the result. The key point is that Bitcoin cash-and-carry is not “riskless.” Real profitability depends on funding, margin, execution, and balance-sheet costs, which can erase a small gross spread. ETF inflows and CME positioning can signal arbitrage demand, but neither dataset links a spot buyer to a futures short at the trader level. The better institutional gauge is net basis after costs, read alongside ETF flows and CME open interest.
