Bitcoin Must Hold $81.5K Support Amid Increased Whale Selling
Bitcoin is at a critical point after breaking key long-term support, with its price finding support near its True Market Mean (TMM) at $81,500—the average cost basis for active investors. Holding above $81,500 is regarded as vital; a sustained drop below this level could prompt a sharp decline and search for lower support, mirroring a past 61% drop after this threshold was lost in 2022. The AVIV Ratio also signals a potential mid-cycle transition, indicating either upcoming consolidation or the risk of entering a bear market. Traders note Bitcoin will likely remain in a choppy trading range unless it loses the $84,000-$85,000 support or breaks above $94,000 resistance. Large transfers by Matrixport—moving about 4,000 BTC to Binance and offloading 80% of its crypto holdings in recent days—suggest ongoing whale capitulation and selling pressure, aligning with a broader trend of long-term holders reducing positions, which may increase the risk of further price declines.
