TD Cowen Trims Strategy Price Target as Bitcoin Yield Outlook Softens

Summary

TD Cowen lowered its price target for MicroStrategy (MSTR) from $500 to $440 but kept a buy rating, noting short-term pressure on key metrics due to compressed Bitcoin prices. The revision reflects the impact of MSTR’s accelerated Bitcoin purchases, with the company acquiring about 13,600 additional Bitcoin using $1.25 billion raised through stock offerings. Analysts say MSTR maintained its strategy during the price decline, viewing the downturn as a temporary opportunity. Chairman Michael Saylor argues the company should be valued by operational performance, not just NAV multiples. Broader market context includes increased institutional adoption and deeper liquidity for Bitcoin, with regulated ETFs and derivatives, supporting MSTR’s thesis. However, risks such as episodic volatility and unmet needs in Bitcoin’s ecosystem remain. Analysts suggest that fuller regulatory alignment and greater acceptance as an asset could further reduce volatility and drive institutional participation.