Bitcoin volatility is down 56% but analysts still expect up to 20% BTC price move
Bitcoin volatility has compressed to unusually low levels, which often precedes a larger price move. One-week realized volatility fell to 17.2% from 39% this quarter, well below its long-term median of 40%. Three- and six-month volatility measures also declined, showing broader price compression. The direction of any breakout remains unclear, but analysts say past squeezes have often led to double-digit rallies. Network valuation data suggests a cooling market: Bitcoin’s growth rate has stayed negative for over six months, implying market value is rising more slowly than realized value. BTC has also traded in a wide $60,000–$80,000 range for 114 days, reinforcing a “tug-of-war” setup. Some traders remain bullish, citing key support levels that could lead to renewed upside if they hold. At the same time, exchange inflows are rising, which can add selling pressure, while large wallets have resumed accumulation, providing potential support.
