Bitcoin’s old coins have gone quiet and $69,000 could reveal whether the new holders crack
Bitcoin aged 1 year or more moved on-chain in unusually large volumes during 2024–2025, but 2026 activity is now less than half of 2025’s pace. That slowdown suggests the “Great Distribution” of dormant supply may be mostly over, though on-chain movement does not prove every transfer was a sale. Excluding exchange and custodial churn makes the signal cleaner, but ownership changes still must be verified off-chain. Glassnode’s data adds that Bitcoin’s bottoming process is still developing: long-term-holder profit-taking has nearly vanished, realized-loss selling has cooled, and losses among long-term holders appear to be easing. The key near-term level is around $69,000, roughly the short-term-holder cost basis. Reclaiming it would move many recent buyers back into profit and reduce selling pressure; rejection would keep them underwater and leave capitulation risk alive. Sustained ETF inflows and real spot demand are still needed to confirm a durable recovery.
