Ethereum is flashing a $478 million buy signal but top traders still expect it to fail
Ethereum is seeing strong exchange outflows, with $478 million net withdrawn over the past 7 days, a pace often interpreted as accumulation. But Nansen’s wallet data is less bullish: top-profit wallets sold $64 million net, while informed traders on Hyperliquid are net short, including $38 million from smart traders and $21 million from whales. ETH is also still underperforming Bitcoin, down 37.1% year to date versus Bitcoin’s 26.2%, with ETH/BTC near 0.029. ETF demand has improved but remains unproven as a trend: U.S. spot ETH ETFs took in $84.3 million for July 6–10, then flipped back to outflows. On-chain activity is mixed, with rising DEX volume and active addresses but weaker perpetual futures volume. Analysts say ETH likely needs several more weeks of sustained ETF inflows plus stronger DeFi and address growth to confirm a real trend. Near-term, ETH/BTC movement and support around $1,800–$1,813 are key levels to watch.
