Bitcoin's Path to Recovery 'Unclear' Amid Macro Headwinds
Bitcoin has dropped 50% from its October 2025 peak to around $63,080, entering levels historically associated with market bottoms. Key indicators, such as Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio at -40, 60-day USDT market cap change below -$3 billion, and record-high altcoin sell pressure, all signal capitulation. Past occurrences of these signals coincided with market lows and improved forward risk-reward, but analysts caution that there are too few data points for statistical certainty. Liquidity withdrawal, falling stablecoin supply, and ongoing ETF outflows contribute to ongoing market weakness. Macro factors—including a divided Federal Reserve, persistent inflation, and strong correlation with the Nasdaq—are headwinds preventing a sustained recovery. Some metrics indicate accumulation is underway, but no decisive reversal has occurred. Prediction market odds reflect broad skepticism, with only an 11% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high before July.
