BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’
Summary
Bitcoin holders are back in aggregate profit, but onchain signals still do not confirm a new bull market. Bitcoin’s supply in profit rose from 46.2% at the end of June to 57.5% by July 22, and long-term holder SOPR has improved as more older coins move at a profit. However, prior bear markets have typically ended only when supply in profit stays above about 64% and the 30-day average of LTH-SOPR remains above 1 for an extended period. A previous April-June attempt met those conditions briefly, then failed when both metrics rolled over. Since then, the LTH-SOPR 30-day average has stayed below 1 for more than 50 days, suggesting recovery remains fragile. Demand is mixed: spot buying is weak, while institutional allocation has rebounded.
