BTC–Gold Ratio Slides As Gold Dominates 2025
In 2025, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell from around 40 to 20 ounces per BTC, driven primarily by gold’s outsized performance rather than by a collapse in Bitcoin demand. Gold surged 63% YTD, exceeding $4,000/oz even amid restrictive US monetary policy, signaling a structural shift in demand. Central banks and ETFs were major buyers, with official sector purchases totaling 254 tonnes and global gold ETF holdings hitting record highs. Gold decoupled from its usual inverse relationship with real yields and attracted risk-off and portfolio insurance demand amid elevated market volatility and heightened geopolitical risks. Bitcoin delivered strong nominal returns and hit six figures, buoyed by early ETF inflows, but underperformed gold. Bitcoin ETF assets peaked mid-year, then declined due to outflows amid price pullbacks and weaker new investment. Long-term holders conducted extensive profit-taking, with notable selling in the latter half of the year. Elevated real yields increased the opportunity cost of holding BTC, while gold benefited from its safe-haven status. The BTC–gold ratio’s decline reflected cyclical repricing between the assets in a unique macroeconomic environment, not a structural weakness in Bitcoin’s long-term case.
