CLARITY Act chances of passage this year falls to 50% after Trump’s new demands
The CLARITY Act, which would set federal rules for crypto markets, is increasingly unlikely to pass in 2025 because Senate time is running out. Galaxy Digital cut its odds of enactment this year to 50%, while Polymarket prices it at 44%. The biggest hurdles are a compressed pre-recess calendar, competing priorities like defense and FISA reauthorization, and a Trump-driven fight over the SAVE Act that is crowding the Senate agenda. Even if floor time opens, unresolved disputes over ethics rules, anti-money-laundering standards, conflict-of-interest limits, and developer liability could split support and cost votes. Crypto firms are lobbying heavily for a July vote, arguing the absence of clear rules hurts U.S. competitiveness. The bill’s fate now matters for markets too, with some analysts viewing passage as a potential support for crypto prices during a broader downturn.
