Polymarket’s $3.3B World Cup boom exposes the longshot trap inside prediction markets
World Cup prediction markets are seeing huge activity, with Polymarket’s tournament-linked contracts topping $3.3 billion in volume, far above the Super Bowl’s roughly $1.4 billion. France is the narrow favorite to win the 2026 World Cup at 23%, with Argentina close at 21%; Spain, England, and Brazil trail behind. The same top-heavy pattern appears in final-reaching markets, where France and Argentina are nearly tied. But most trading is not concentrated in the favorites. About $1.6 billion has been traded on teams with 1% or lower implied odds, showing that large volume can reflect earlier bets, stale positions, speculation, hedging, or fan buying rather than current belief. Outside soccer, prediction-market activity is also surging, with strong growth in non-sports contracts. At the same time, regulators are taking a closer look: the CFTC has reportedly opened an investigation into Polymarket as the sector posts record volumes.
