Core inflation excludes oil. Bitcoin investors still cannot ignore it
A Federal Reserve staff study finds oil-price changes have had a stronger relationship with core inflation since 2021: a 10-percentage-point rise in relative oil-price inflation is associated with about a 0.14-point increase in core inflation, versus an insignificant 0.01-point response before 2021. The authors warn that indirect energy costs can feed into prices, but say second-round effects from the current oil shock have not yet appeared. Their projections are an upper-bound scenario, not official forecasts, and may reflect broader post-pandemic changes. Separate research suggests tighter monetary policy can weigh on crypto prices through reduced risk appetite. The potential Bitcoin impact is therefore indirect: persistent oil-driven inflation could delay rate cuts and constrain investor appetite, though the studies do not forecast Bitcoin prices.
