The missing step in the warning that Japan could trigger Bitcoin’s next selloff
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s lecture explains that Japanese companies can earn income from overseas affiliates and reinvest it abroad, boosting both Japan’s income surplus and outward investment without bringing cash home. That means the surplus alone does not prove Japanese investors are selling foreign assets or buying yen, and it cannot establish Bitcoin selling pressure. October 25–31 data showed designated Japanese institutions were net buyers of foreign securities. Upcoming Ministry of Finance releases may indicate changes in securities allocation, but exclude direct investment and reserves and do not show whether proceeds were converted into yen. A gradual shift into Japanese assets could affect financing, while a leveraged yen carry-trade unwind could trigger faster cross-market selling. The latter would require evidence of sharp yen moves and funding or margin stress; the 2024 BIS analysis describes a possible mechanism, not current forced Bitcoin sales.
