Critical Bitcoin Market Metrics Signal Start of Bear Market: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin demand growth has slowed since October 2025, indicating the onset of a bear market cycle. CryptoQuant analysts identify three major demand waves in the current cycle: after the January 2024 launch of US Bitcoin ETFs, following the 2024 US presidential election results, and a BTC treasury company bubble. Since October 2025, demand growth has fallen below trend, suggesting most incremental demand is already realized, reducing price support. Institutional demand has contracted, with ETF Bitcoin holdings dropping by 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, a reversal from the previous year’s accumulation. Funding rates have hit their lowest since December 2023, and Bitcoin’s price structure has broken below its 365-day moving average, both signaling a bearish market. While some analysts remain optimistic about price increases in 2026 due to lower interest rates, current market sentiment remains negative. Only 22.1% of investors anticipate a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. President Trump has pressured the Federal Reserve to lower rates and is considering replacements for Chairman Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.
