Did Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Break: Is BTC’s Bull Market Finished?
Bitcoin has historically followed four-year cycles driven by halving events, with prices typically peaking 12-18 months post-halving before entering bear markets. Following this pattern, Bitcoin peaked near $126,200 around 18 months after the April 2024 halving, then dropped over 30%. Indicators like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reveal BTC is now being sold at smaller profits or losses, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, firms like Grayscale and Fidelity foresee a break from this historical cycle, predicting a new record high for Bitcoin by mid-2026. Their optimism is fueled by rising macroeconomic demand, concerns over fiat currency risk, and increased institutional participation. Institutional Bitcoin holdings have surged with US ETFs and public companies collectively holding over 2.38 million BTC by December 2024. The growing influence of ETFs and corporate treasuries may be reshaping Bitcoin’s traditional boom-and-bust pattern, possibly extending the market expansion phase beyond the typical four-year cycle.
