Dollar stablecoin use stayed elevated after capital controls ended, new research suggests
An IMF economist’s analysis of USDT and USDC flows across 188 countries finds cross-border stablecoin activity rose about 30% within six months of tighter capital controls and stayed elevated through 12 months. Removing controls did not produce a detectable reversal, suggesting easing restrictions alone may not restore earlier usage. A separate crisis-country comparison estimates holdings rose $7.9 billion above control-country trends. A BIS study also finds persistence in stablecoin activity and dollar deposits, but its estimates do not show statistically significant stablecoin-flow responses to restrictions. Differences in data, methods and tests mean the findings are not directly contradictory. The evidence measures flows and inferred holdings, not necessarily net capital flight or reduced monetary-policy effectiveness; authorities are advised to monitor these outcomes separately after controls change.
