Fed Economists Praise Prediction Markets as States Step Up Enforcement
Federal Reserve researchers have found that macroeconomic prediction markets offer real-time, market-based measures of inflation and interest-rate expectations, with forecast performance that matches or exceeds traditional methods. These markets provide continuously updated, transparent probability distributions around key economic data and policy events, making them valuable tools for research and policymaking. The study highlights prediction markets' potential to improve the understanding of monetary policy transmission, sentiment, and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, this comes as state regulators, such as Nevada, intensify enforcement against these platforms, arguing they can resemble unlicensed gambling. Ongoing regulatory disputes create uncertainty and threaten the sector’s stability, even as industry leaders emphasize the broader utility of prediction markets beyond gambling. They argue that consistent participation and regulatory clarity are necessary for these markets to provide accurate, liquid forecasts. The research suggests that with proper oversight, prediction markets could further evolve into robust forecasting engines for economic and policy outcomes, potentially informing decision-making frameworks like Futarchy, which relies on market predictions to guide policy.

