Google's Stock Fell on Its Best I/O in Years. Here's Why BofA Is Still Buying
Bank of America maintains a “buy” rating on Alphabet with a $430 price target, projecting 10.9% upside from its current value. Key growth indicators are surging AI usage: AI Overviews has 2.5 billion users, AI Mode 1 billion (doubling quarterly), and Gemini monthly users skyrocketed from 400 million to 900 million in a year. BofA argues Google is leading innovation and successfully moving search users toward AI-native experiences, reducing competitive risks. However, whether AI queries will monetize better than traditional search remains unproven. Major product launches span five areas: advanced Gemini AI models with improved speed and cost; AI-integrated Search and new persistent “Search Agents” for ongoing user tasks; Gemini Spark, a cloud-based agent for automating personal/work tasks; Universal Cart for multi-retailer shopping (not including Amazon); and upcoming Gemini-powered glasses. In hardware, key details are still pending. Financially, Alphabet faces rising capital expenditures, with free cash flow expected to dip sharply before recovering by 2028, when returns are anticipated. Risks include user migration to AI competitors, delays in LLM integration, regulatory compliance costs, and tight free cash flow. BofA sees Alphabet’s premium valuation as justified by its AI momentum, despite short-term headwinds.
