Kevin Warsh’s no-guidance Fed breaks a 30-year playbook – leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to surprise rate hike
Bitcoin slipped ahead of a Federal Reserve decision that could break a long-running market pattern. It fell as much as 3% to $62,913 before recovering near $63,795. Markets mostly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, but futures still price a meaningful chance of a 25-basis-point hike, even though only about 10 basis points of tightening are currently embedded. That mismatch raises the risk of a sharp repricing if the Fed tightens. Analysts say the bigger issue is not the size of any hike, but what it signals about future policy. A July increase could push traders to price a more restrictive path through 2026. Bitcoin has been relatively resilient, up about 9% this month, despite recent ETF outflows and rising anxiety over rate policy. The decision’s message about September and beyond may matter more for crypto than the move itself.
