Multi-year Bitcoin holder selling falls to 19-month low as halving model flags new market bottom date
Bitcoin long-term holders who bought more than five years ago have sharply reduced spending, with the 90-day average falling to 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024. This follows three major selling waves over the past two years, including peaks of 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. Analysts say this suggests older holders are now largely holding despite prices near their cost basis, around $63,200. At the same time, newer holders appear under more stress. Bitcoin’s aNUPL has dropped to -0.14, indicating average holders are back in unrealized losses, while long-term holder capital has barely declined. Analysts describe this as weak hands capitulating without broad long-term holder surrender. Several traders now see a possible Bitcoin bottom in late Q3 to early Q4 2026, based on halving-cycle timing and liquidity below current prices, with downside zones near $58,900 and a broader gap between about $49,000 and $58,900.
