Polymarket Fed Hold Odds Hit 94% As Softer Inflation Boosts Bitcoin Mood
Polymarket traders are pricing a 94% chance that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at its July meeting, reflecting improved risk sentiment after softer inflation data. A cooler CPI reading reduces expectations of further tightening and can support Bitcoin by improving appetite for risk assets and easing liquidity concerns. Bitcoin is still driven by both macro conditions and crypto-specific demand. Recent spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, add a bullish layer if they continue, suggesting renewed institutional allocation alongside a friendlier Fed outlook. The key point is that this is a sentiment signal, not a policy decision: the Fed will still base its move on inflation, labor data, and financial conditions. If it holds and sounds less hawkish, Bitcoin could benefit; if guidance stays cautious or inflation rebounds, current odds could reverse quickly.
