Senator Flags White House 'Corruption' Concerns Over Iran War Predictions Markets
Six accounts made $1.2 million on Polymarket prediction markets by betting the U.S. would strike Iran, placing their wagers just hours before the attack. Blockchain analytics revealed that most wallets were newly funded within 24 hours of the strikes, suggesting possible insider trading by those with advance knowledge of military decisions. Senator Chris Murphy condemned the activity, calling it corruption and vowing to introduce legislation to ban such markets, warning that insiders could profit by influencing or exploiting sensitive government actions. Polymarket saw a surge in trading, with $425 million wagered on geopolitical outcomes the week of the attack, up from $164 million previously. Analysis found over 150 accounts correctly bet on the U.S. strike, with at least 16 profiting over $100,000 each. The controversy comes as the Senate rejected a resolution limiting presidential war powers and amid broader criticism of letting people profit from war-related events. Polymarket recently removed a market on nuclear detonation following public backlash. Similar insider betting issues have occurred internationally, including charges against individuals using classified intelligence in Israel.
