Three Fed officials just voted for a rate hike as Bitcoin hangs by a thread on a $62,000 shelf
The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a divided 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a hike. Bitcoin briefly moved above $64,000 after the decision, but remains stuck in Glassnode’s key $62,000–$68,000 cost-basis band, where long-term holders provide support and short-term holders may sell into strength. Market structure remains weak: Bitcoin’s futures basis is below two-year Treasury yields, spot volume is at its lowest since 2019, and exchange activity is near a three-year low. ETF flows also turned negative after a short inflow streak, signaling no new regime yet. Near-term direction depends on inflation and growth data, especially PCE, jobs, and CPI before the Fed’s September meeting. If inflation stays contained and oil eases, Bitcoin could reclaim $69,000 and target $83,000–$86,000. If oil stays high and inflation surprises upward, Bitcoin risks losing $62,000 and facing deeper downside.
