Urea Surges 34% as Iran Conflict Ripples Through Commodities, Bitcoin
The Iran conflict has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global supply chains for commodities such as aluminum, plastics, and especially urea, a key nitrogen-based fertilizer. Approximately 16 million tonnes of fertilizers, representing a third of global seaborne trade (with over two-thirds being urea), pass through the strait. Urea prices have surged to $601 per ton as of March 16, rising over 34% in the past month and 57% year-over-year. A prediction market is tracking whether urea prices will surpass $610 by March 25. Urea production is energetically linked—primarily to natural gas—making its price sensitive to broader energy market volatility. Oil prices have also risen, with WTI crude near $100 and a 65% market-implied probability of moving to $120. These market disruptions have contributed to increased cryptocurrency volatility, with Bitcoin reaching $75,000 as investors treat it as a potential “digital safe haven” in response to geopolitical stress.
