Why a resilient jobs market keeps turning into a Bitcoin sell signal

Summary

Bitcoin fell below $64,000 as resilient U.S. labor data and a hawkish Fed outlook reduced expectations for rate cuts. Initial jobless claims dropped to 226,000, unemployment held at 4.3%, and the labor market still looks firm enough to keep policy tight despite some softening in continuing claims. The Fed held rates steady and raised its inflation and longer-run rate projections, with markets quickly pricing in a high chance of a December hike and almost no 2026 cuts. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar pressured crypto, which is more sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite than to economic strength itself. Stocks can benefit from strong jobs data, but Bitcoin tends to weaken when good economic news delays easier monetary policy. ETF outflows added to the pressure, though Bitcoin could still rise if inflows, disinflation, or weaker dollar conditions offset the macro headwind.