Why Analysts Aren’t Worried About Coinbase’s 30% Drop
Coinbase and Circle rose 3–4% even after William Blair cut Coinbase’s 2026 revenue estimate by 12%, 2027 by 13%, and reduced adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 34% for both years. The firm still kept an outperform rating, arguing the downside is already priced in and that Coinbase earnings should bottom in late 2026 before recovering in 2027 as spot crypto volume and Bitcoin stabilize. It expects Coinbase trading volume to drop about 44% this year, then rebound more than 32% in 2027. The cycle looks different from 2022 because of spot Bitcoin ETFs, stronger institutional flows, and a more mature regulatory backdrop. Growth drivers beyond spot trading include Base, retail derivatives, and prediction markets. Near term, Piper Sandler remained cautious, citing competition from perpetual futures and strong Q2 prediction-market activity. Bitcoin’s technical and on-chain backdrop is also improving: Bollinger sees a possible “W” double-bottom, while Glassnode says long-term holder selling pressure has peaked and accumulation has returned. Still, no sustained spot-led buying has confirmed a full recovery.
