Why Bitcoin’s Popular Narratives Don’t Match the Data — James Check on 2026
Despite Bitcoin’s similar price levels to earlier periods, key market dynamics have shifted significantly. Onchain analyst James Check notes changes in leverage, investor cost basis, and selling patterns. Most current Bitcoin investors bought at higher prices, meaning many are at a loss and exercising caution. Contrary to a common belief, long-term holders are selling their coins at a faster rate than usual, significantly affecting price movements. Claims that ETFs or major corporate entities dominate Bitcoin are overstated; while influential, their activity constitutes only part of the market. Bitcoin’s market has grown in scale and liquidity, now handling large capital flows with less dramatic volatility. Looking to 2026, Check recommends moving beyond simplistic bullish or bearish views, stressing the importance of understanding deeper, structural market changes, and considering longer-term risks and portfolio strategies.
