Year in Prediction Markets: From Regulatory 'Sinkhole' to Multi-Billion Dollar Business
Prediction markets surged into the mainstream in 2025, with platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, and Myriad collectively reaching over $2 billion in weekly trading volume. These markets allow users to bet on outcomes spanning finance, politics, sports, and culture, with their influence clearly felt during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Polymarket accurately predicted Donald Trump’s reelection, boosting its visibility and volumes to record highs. The sector drew scrutiny and regulatory backlash, leading to investigations and temporary bans, but sentiment shifted after the CFTC held a public roundtable and relaxed its stance, clearing the way for election betting. Major firms like Robinhood and Crypto.com entered the space, and by mid-2025, predictions estimated the industry could reach $95.5 billion by 2035. Prediction markets became integrated into wider culture—featured in South Park and partnered with companies such as CNN, CNBC, the NHL, and Yahoo Finance. New entrants and traditional betting firms like DraftKings joined, although analysts believe early leaders Polymarket and Kalshi retain advantage. Despite ongoing state-level regulatory hurdles, industry growth accelerated, with new investment and applications fueling continued expansion.

